NEW JERSEY SREC PRICES END A FOUR YEAR RALLY


NEW JERSEY SREC PRICES END A FOUR YEAR RALLY
 
The four year uptrend in spot New Jersey SREC prices between 2012 and early 2016 has officially ended. The market is now in a downtrend. It is making new lows and subsequently lower highs on any rallies. We should expect to see the market find new lows and trade off of varying levels of support as it digests and interprets how new investors react to lower SREC values. Will they throttle back and keep in line with State requirements or will they overbuild like they have in the past?
 
Prices trended higher from a low of $60 in the fall of 2012 to a high of $290.09 on June 13th of 2016. This can be attributed to the adjustment in the law governing solar development which was passed in 2012. The law achieved its goals up to this point as the amount of solar installed has almost exactly matched solar growth rates in the past few years. Prices are now under $220. Short-term support is at $200 and $180. If the market holds $200 now we may not see the $180 level until next spring after the BGS auction.
 
The end of the rally occurred as there were enough SRECs to satisfy all of the energy companies’ compliance needs for the RY 2016 deadline on November 1st. After hitting a low of $235 in August, RY 2016 SRECs led the way and rallied up to $265 briefly on September 27th. At that time the buying for the RY 2016 compliance dried up and energy companies could relax and take their time procuring SRECs for next years’ compliance. Requirements for SRECs increase next year however, new solar installations have been running higher than the State requirement which will produce enough of a cushion so that buyers do not have to worry about a shortfall.
 
Many sellers are still selling their SRECs on the spot market however, buyers and sellers of large blocks of SRECs have been actively negotiating 3 year deals at the $180 level for RY 17, 18 and 19 SRECs. The prices implied for each of these individual years shows where the market prices SRECs in the future:
 
NJ2017=$220
NJ2018=$200
NJ2019=$120

 
Due to the steep discount that the market is placing on SRECs three years out there is less incentive to bank and hold SRECs as sellers have in the past.
 
Year after year there has been significant SREC buying in February as winners of the statewide BGS auction hedge out a portion of their 3 year obligations. The question each year is if prices will rally because of the BGS auction. When the market was in a bull trend there was always a rally on each BGS auction. Now that the clear uptrend has stalled that rally may not repeat itself. At least possibly not to the same degree. Between now and the end of this calendar year we can expect SREC prices to find a support level in anticipation of the BGS buying. Support levels are $200 and $180. A BGS rally off those levels will run into resistance at $220 and $235.
 
Based on current market conditions we recommend to our sellers to sell spot SRECs on a continual basis, especially if the market rallies.
 
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
 


Posted in: New Jersey SRECs, Press Releases, Research, SREC

New Jersey SREC Prices Drop $50


 
After reaching a four year high price of $290.09 on June 13th New Jersey SREC prices have dropped $50 to the $240 level.
 
There are two major reasons why the uptrend has stalled and prices have corrected slightly:
 

  1. Most New Jersey electricity compliance buyers have finished procuring their RY 2016 SRECs. Buyers needed to purchase and retire approximately 2,090,000 SRECs (They could use any SRECs generated between August of 2012 and May of 2016). In GATS there are 2,167,382 SRECs available which leaves about a 77,000 oversupply. There will be less than that available because some sellers hold their SRECs and some have been purchased for hedging purposes by other buyers. This leaves the RY 16 market almost “balanced”.  This justifies last year’s uptrend and previous $290.09 high price. Now that they have finished buying for this year the buyers seem to be stepping back and taking their time. They now have over a year to buy for their next compliance.
     
  2. The New Jersey BPU reported an increase in the amount of solar being installed. In July they released a report showing upward adjustments to the amount of solar installed last year along with a few completions of large scale grid connect projects. Since February the BPU has reported an additional 186 Mw installed which has also led to the price correction.
  3.  

It is not expected that the market will drop quickly to levels seen in 2012 in the next year. The 2012 law throttled back the amount of large scale solar farms that can quickly oversupply an SREC market. Also, there has been a shift to more very small residential installations in the last few years and less medium size commercial installations. A surprise oversupply is unlikely however, we need to be on the lookout for a steady increase in supply. The BPU reports new solar installations monthly.
 
As for prices, sellers should not rely on steady uptrends like they saw in the 2013 – 2016 timeframe. Prices will more than likely swing like we have seen recently. We suggest to our sellers to sell if there is any short-term appreciation and if not, make sure that a periodic selling approach is taken to mitigate holding too many SRECs on a protracted down-trend.
 
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
 


Posted in: New Jersey SRECs, Press Releases, Research, SREC

Maryland SREC Update – April 2016


Supply and Demand. This is the main driving factor in MD SREC pricing.


Currently there is 478 mw of solar installations registered in PJM-EIS, the website that creates SRECs.  These facilities will generate an estimated 570,000 SRECs for the 2016 calendar year. Add in the unsold SRECs from 2014 and 2015 (around 100,000 SRECs) and we are looking at an oversupply of 230,000 or more SRECs after the buyers turn in their 2016 SREC purchases.

 

The 2017 vintage is oversupplied. The RPS requires approximately 615,000 SRECs to be turned in for 2017 compliance year. With the 230,000 plus SREC carry over from 2016 plus the current 478 mw of solar generating SRECs right now that demand is met and oversupplied again by approximately 115,000 SRECs. As the year goes along and more solar is installed the market become more and more oversupplied.

 

Build Rates: Maryland has been installing more and more solar year over year.  In 2013 around 40 mw was installed, 2014 around 60 mw and in 2015 124 mw!  Yes, in 2015 twice as much solar went on-line then 2014.   If this trend continues, installing double the 2015 number, we could potentially see 248 mw installed this year.  Is this build rate sustainable? Potentially yes, but that’s an aggressive amount to install. However, just this year MD has installed almost 100 mw’s and its only been 4 months. If the 2016 build rate does in fact double we could project a 400,000 SREC oversupply for 2017. If the build rate remains the same, 10 to 11 mw a month, an oversupply of 200,000 plus SRECs could happen.

 

Legislative variable: Will the current house bill HB116 http://tinyurl.com/zeklecq that just passed in the House and Senate fix the problem? The bill does call to increase the solar carve out. For 2017 the RPS for solar will be increased from 0.95% to 1.15% or increase the demand from 615,000 SREC to about 725,000 SRECs. This increase would soak up the oversupply of SRECs but not if the current build rate continues. The date in which the bill will reach the Governors desk has not been scheduled yet.

 

DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.


Posted in: Maryland SRECs, Press Releases, Research, SREC, Uncategorized

March 2016 New Jersey SREC Market Update


 
New Jersey SREC Prices Slip But Remain Close to Highs
 
The New Jersey SREC market reached a four year high on February 5th with a settlement of $289.78 on the Flett Exchange trading platform. Prices retraced $14 back down to $275 and are now trading close to $280 today.
 
Why have SREC prices risen?
 
SREC prices have remained stable and risen during the past few years because the majority of new solar installed in New Jersey are small lease systems on single family homes as opposed to large scale solar farms which can at times take up 50 or more acres of farmland. Legislation passed in 2012 limited the amount of cheaper large scale grid connect projects in favor for net metered projects (solar on or next to buildings that offset that buildings electricity). Smaller systems cost more than large systems to build so they need a higher SREC price. However, with spot SREC prices at $280 to $290 and 3 year SREC contracts at $245 we should see an increase in new solar construction in the next year.
 
What are solar owners doing with their SRECS?
 
Solar owners in New Jersey are taking advantage of the rising SREC prices and are selling any banked SRECs that they have accumulated along with any that they produce on a month to month basis. We suggest to our solar owners to sell on a consistent basis, especially as prices rise.
 
How do I sell?
 
If you are a Flett Exchange customer and would like to sell your SRECs for immediate payment and delivery you can always log into your Flett Exchange account or give us a call on the trading desk at 201-209-0234. If you are a new customer you can register for an account here. If you have a large amount of SRECs call and we will try to sell your SRECs at higher block prices.
 
The Quickest and Easiest way to sell:
 
Customers can also check out our “sell now price” on our website and transfer your SRECs to “Flett Exchange, LLC” at that price on GATS. We will take care of the rest for you and mail your check or send your proceeds via ACH.
 
Thank you for your continued business over the years!
 
Mike, Shean, Kevin, Brian and Mike
 
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
 


Posted in: New Jersey SRECs, Press Releases, Research, SREC

New Jersey SRECs Rally to Highest Levels in 4 Years!


New Jersey SRECs Rally to Highest Levels in 4 Years!
 
The New Jersey SREC market rallied to the highest levels in four years yesterday. The previous high was $282.58 on December 29, 2011 on the 2012 vintage. Yesterdays’ settlement on Flett Exchange surpassed it by just 23 cents at $282.81 for the spot 2016 vintage.
 
The 2016 vintage SREC has rallied a whopping 30% on the spot market since it started trading in July at $220 on Flett Exchange.
 
Where have SREC prices traded in previous years?
 
You can check out daily historical pricing and charts for New Jersey SRECs on Flett Exchange by clicking here. Our pricing goes back almost 9 years to June of 2007. All our pricing is based on the volume weighted average price of actual spot sales of SRECs by solar owners.
 
Why have SREC prices gone up?
 
Flett Exchange sellers, who are all solar owners, have been actively selling into this rally to take advantage of the high prices. Power companies, who are required to provide a portion of their electricity sales from solar, have been competitively procuring SRECs thus pushing prices higher. The fundamental rise in prices is partially attributable to the low rate of solar installations in New Jersey during the last year. Also, prices have risen in past years in the winter due to the hedging for a large electricity auction which is conducted each year. This may have been the case again this year giving solar owners an opportunity to capitalize on high prices once again.
 
What should I do if I have SRECs?
 
We suggest to our sellers to continue to sell at these high prices. High SREC prices encourage new solar to be installed at a higher rate because those investors will achieve higher returns on their investment. There is generally a lag of over a year in new investment in solar in response to high SREC prices. We should expect an increase in new solar installations this year which should have a dampening effect on New Jersey SREC prices.
 
What is the highest price New Jersey SRECs can go to?
 
The SACP – or the price level that energy companies will be fined for not buying enough SRECs this year – is $323. In prior years, when there were not enough SRECs produced to satisfy the amount required, (which is not the case this year) the market did not trade at the SACP. Most buyers only paid 95% of that value. 95% of this years’ cap is $306.85 for those of you who are looking for an upside objective.
 
How do I sell?
 
If you are a Flett Exchange customer and would like to sell your SRECs for immediate payment and delivery you can always log into your Flett Exchange account or give us a call on the trading desk at 201-209-0234. If you are a new customer you can register for an account here. If you have a large amount of SRECs call and we will try to sell your SRECs at higher block prices.
 
The Quickest and Easiest way to sell:
 
Customers can also check out our “sell now price” on our website and transfer your SRECs to “Flett Exchange, LLC” at that price on GATS. We will take care of the rest for you and mail your check or send your proceeds via ACH.
 
Thank you for your continued business over the years!
 
Mike, Shean, Kevin, Brian and Mike
 
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
 


Posted in: New Jersey SRECs, Press Releases, Research, SREC

New Jersey SREC prices rally to highest levels since January 2012!


 
New Jersey SREC prices rallied over $240 early this week to reach the highest levels since 2012! Prices are up over 30% from this time last year.
 
Prices are strong because the amount of solar installed in New Jersey on a monthly basis as reported by the Office of Clean Energy this year has been low. During the last 6 months there were only 13 Mw installed on an average basis on the reports. Monthly builds near 20Mw over a longer period of time is what is estimated to be needed to supply the energy companies with their mandated SREC requirement.
 
The overall supply for SRECs is less this year because most of the oversupply has been retired as a result of the legislation enacted in 2012. It requires a significant increase in SREC obligations in the short term. Also, that same legislation limited the installation of new large scale solar farms that led to the majority of the SREC crash in 2012.
 
We do expect to see a backlog of new larger solar farms hit the monthly installation numbers in the next few months along with other new projects that are vying for EDC fixed rate contracts. In the past solar developers have waited to install new solar in order to be eligible for the BPU mandated 10 year SREC contracts that shift risk from solar owner to the ratepayer.
 
Depending upon when this backlog of projects hits the market will determine a potential top of the market. If it does not happen for a few months the market may continue to rally. If it happens this month we may be nearing a potential top of the market.
 
We suggest to our solar owners to sell SRECs on a consistent basis to better achieve an average SREC price over the year. This also limits the risk of not selling your SRECs and the prices dropping as they did 3 years ago.
 

Flett Exchange - New Jersey SREC Price / Supply November 2015


DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
 


Posted in: New Jersey SRECs, Press Releases, Research, SREC

New Jersey Office of Clean Energy Report – June 2015


NJ_Solar_Market_Update_06_30_2015-3-3 pdf


Posted in: Uncategorized

New Jersey SREC Prices Remain High on Lower Solar Installations


 
New Jersey SREC update August 2015:
 
The first of the energy year 2016 SRECs were minted on July 31st. Prices continue to remain strong in the mid $220s. It appears that there is still active buying by electric companies for their 2015 compliance which is due this fall.
 
Sellers continue to sell at these high prices and volume has been robust. Most sellers that have accumulated SRECs are selling which is why the exchange has seen selling activity in all energy years – 2013, 2014, 2015 and now 2016.
 
SREC Prices Remain High on Lower New Solar Installations
 
On July 23rd the NJ Office of Clean Energy released their NJ_Solar_Market_Update_06_30_2015-3 of how much solar was installed in June. There were 14.4 Mw installed bringing the statewide total capacity to 1,500.7 Mw. This is another relatively light month of new solar installations. The average amount of new solar installed during the last six months was only 11.5/Mw. These low monthly installation reports continue to have a bullish effect on the SREC prices. (We feel there is some type of disconnect and that a large amount of projects will hit at any month.)
 
BPU Auction Clears at $246.42
 
The BPU conducted an auction for 42,000 SRECs on July 14th and the clearing price was $246.42. This was more than $10 over the price traded in the market which may indicate that there were a few buyers that were being forced to pay up to make compliance for energy year 2015. Prices have been $15 to $20 below that level since the auction.
 

Where are prices going from here?

 
As long as buyers need SRECs for their ry 15 compliance due this fall the prices will remain strong. Once they are done we expect the market to pull back to $200 or less this fall. We also expect a very large new solar installation number to hit in the next few months. It just does not make sense that solar installations are so low on a monthly basis while the economics (low installation costs and high SREC prices) are so favorable. If new installations are being withheld they will have to hit the states reports at some time. In the meantime the current numbers from the state indicate a continually strong SREC market.
 
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
 


Posted in: New Jersey SRECs, Press Releases, Research, SREC

New Jersey SREC Prices Off From February Highs


 
SREC prices have risen 29% to $214.72 average in February 2015 compared to $166.30 in February 2014. Prices are currently trading $200 for new SRECs for immediate payment and delivery on the Flett Exchange trading platform. This is off from 3 year highs of $220 reached last month.
 
Prices rose in January and February due to the active hedging leading up to and after the BGS auction in which energy providers contract to sell electricity to New Jersey customers who do not choose a 3rd party supplier. The auction winners competitively manage their SREC obligations by buying spot and long term contracts from solar owners and shovel-ready solar projects. In another closely watched auction Electric Distribution companies of New Jersey sold 32,766 SRECs yesterday at a clearing price of $211.01. (Larger volumes tend to get a premium on the auctions)
 
The New Jersey Office of Clean Energy reported that 17.8 Mw of solar was installed in February bringing the total up to 1,456 Mw of operating solar. This amount of solar almost exactly matches the average amount of solar installed during the past 6, 12 and 24 months. It appears that the solar development in New Jersey is under control and is developing in line with state growth goals set out by legislation.
 
Prices for SRECs may drop in the future if the development exceeds the state mandates which is why we monitor the monthly build rates. We suggest to sell your SRECs on a consistent basis when prices are high like they are now.
 
The following is a chart showing SREC prices compared to monthly install rates.
 

New Jersey Solar - SREC Prices and Mw Installation Rates - February 2015


 
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
 


Posted in: New Jersey SRECs, Press Releases, Research, SREC

New Jersey SREC Prices Reach 3 Year Highs!


 
New Jersey SREC Prices Reach 3 Year Highs!
 
New Jersey SREC prices have rallied to the highest level seen since January 2012! SRECs are trading above $200 for both 2014 and 2015 energy years.
 
Prices have rallied for a few reasons:
 
1. Legislation passed by the Democrats and signed into law by Governor Christie in the summer of 2012 to save the solar market is working.
 
2. The new solar installations have been very light on a monthly basis as reported by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities. Only 7.7 Mw were installed in November.
 
3. Prices have rallied in prior years at this time of the year due to energy companies buying SRECs for hedging purposes.
 
4. There are not as many SRECs available for sale on the spot market the first half of the energy year because many of the large installations use their first SRECs to deliver against long term contracts.
 
We expect the rate of solar installations to pick up in the coming months due to the favorable economics of solar investing in New Jersey – low panel prices coupled with higher SRECs and historically high electricity prices in New Jersey. If there are high installation rates on a continual basis it will lead to lower SREC prices in the future. In the meantime prices seem to be on an up-trend.
 

If you would like to take advantage of the higher prices and sell any of your SRECs you have a few options at Flett Exchange:
 
1. Log into your account on the Flett Exchange Trading Platform to list your SRECs for sale at any price you like.
 
2. Check our ” Sell Now Price” on our Website and transfer your SRECs to Flett Exchange LLC on GATs.
 
3. Call our trading desk at 201-209-0234 and speak to one of our brokers who can help you with GATs transfers.
 
4. Large volume sellers can call our brokerage desk (201-209-0234) for direct OTC spot and forward bilateral contracts.
 
As always, we remit payment within 24 hours for spot transactions.
 
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
 


Posted in: New Jersey SRECs, Press Releases, Research, SREC


 



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