New Jersey SREC prices rallied over $240 early this week to reach the highest levels since 2012! Prices are up over 30% from this time last year.
Prices are strong because the amount of solar installed in New Jersey on a monthly basis as reported by the Office of Clean Energy this year has been low. During the last 6 months there were only 13 Mw installed on an average basis on the reports. Monthly builds near 20Mw over a longer period of time is what is estimated to be needed to supply the energy companies with their mandated SREC requirement.
The overall supply for SRECs is less this year because most of the oversupply has been retired as a result of the legislation enacted in 2012. It requires a significant increase in SREC obligations in the short term. Also, that same legislation limited the installation of new large scale solar farms that led to the majority of the SREC crash in 2012.
We do expect to see a backlog of new larger solar farms hit the monthly installation numbers in the next few months along with other new projects that are vying for EDC fixed rate contracts. In the past solar developers have waited to install new solar in order to be eligible for the BPU mandated 10 year SREC contracts that shift risk from solar owner to the ratepayer.
Depending upon when this backlog of projects hits the market will determine a potential top of the market. If it does not happen for a few months the market may continue to rally. If it happens this month we may be nearing a potential top of the market.
We suggest to our solar owners to sell SRECs on a consistent basis to better achieve an average SREC price over the year. This also limits the risk of not selling your SRECs and the prices dropping as they did 3 years ago.
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.